One thing I love this week: The George Sheet
It’s that wonderful time of the year again. The leaves have changed color, fallen down, and clumped together into large piles that hurl themselves into my face the second the slightest gust of wind picks up.
It’s a transitory time between the beauty of fall and the bleak emptiness of winter that really makes you appreciate the last glimpses of sunlight you’ll see for the next five months. A beautiful two months where it’s cold, but like magical cold because of the holiday cheer in the air. Not the bitter, melancholic cold that comes in January and has you sprinting for one of those indoor sunlight things.
No, now is a time for gratitude. Especially tonight. Because tonight, college basketball returns. Now for you fiscally responsible losers, college hoops probably doesn’t mean much to you. But for all my reckless, morally and literally bankrupt gamblers out there, you know the excitement that this day brings.
That’s why this week’s OTILTW is:
The George Sheet: A Degenerate’s Guide to Sports Betting
College basketball is the only sport besides football that I really bet. Why? Because it’s chaos. Anyone can beat anyone else on any given night. And if you watch enough of it, you start to notice patterns. You start to identify certain teams that always play above their station. Teams that have a future NBA superstar that no one has really taken full notice of. Teams that refuse to believe they’re outmatched and will give the blue bloods a run for their money.
And if you really spend time watching, evaluating, and betting college basketball, you start to see and memorize these patterns. It’s like a secret code. And if you crack it, you get the most elusive thing in all of sports gambling: an advantage.
So for years I’ve subjected myself to the ineptitude of college basketball players. I’ve watched hours upon hours of missed free throws and failed inbound passes. I’ve spent countless late nights sweating out meaningless 2AM games between two California state schools whose mascots are the Anteaters and Gauchos respectively.
But it’s all been worth it. Every second. Because a few years ago, those patterns started to make themselves known. I could read them as clearly as you can read this. And I compiled what my roommates later termed: “The George Sheet: A Degenerates Guide to Sports Betting.”
It is my personal list of 35 rules to follow if you want to have success betting college basketball. Four years ago, my friends framed it up for me as a 22nd birthday gift. Now it hangs on the wall of my bathroom as a visual aid while I’m placing wagers on the john, and as a constant reminder that I’m shitty at gambling.
And now with college basketball returned for the 2022-23 season, I’m going to share my rules with you, right here, right now, for free:
The George Sheet: A Degenerate’s Guide to Sports Betting
1. Don’t bet for or against BC (or against your own alma mater)
In general you shouldn’t bet on BC because they suck. But also don’t bet against them because they have a tendency to show up the one time you need them to fail. Also, I do not advise betting against your own alma mater. Not only is it a shitty thing to do, but you look like an asshole if you lose.
2. Never bet a game at the Carrier Dome
The Carrier Dome is Syracuse’s home court. Why should you not bet a game there? Because it looks like this:
That, ladies and gents, is a football stadium they also play basketball in. Depth perception is wayyyy off. Good luck shooting from the corner.
3. Don’t bet the MAC…at all
Conference of chaos. No way to get any sort of betting edge here.
4. Don’t bet rivalry games
Everyone plays their balls off. You’re getting the most ramped up versions of each team.
5. Don’t bet the Big West. Everyone is equally shitty
6. Don’t bet a team just because they have one superstar prospect
Ja Morant and Murray State. How’d that work out for ol’ George?
7. Be VERY wary of the PAC-12
8. Only bet the Big East if it’s a virtual certainty and even then think it through carefully
9. Speaking of the Big East…DON’T BET AGAINST DEPAUL. They will murder your parlay.
Just trust me on this. I’ve been burned too many times before.
10. If the game doesn’t stand out as a potential bet at FIRST GLANCE, don’t bet it.
11. Don’t do research beyond the records. Stats can’t save you in college ball.
12. The Tom O’Brien Corollary: Don’t bet NC State. They do the opposite of what you think they will.
O’Brien is an old football coach at BC then NC State. Could never get a read on either of their major athletic programs. Still not sure if he was a good coach or not.
13. Avoid the A10. They’re all essentially the same team.
Davidson, Dayton, St. Louis, Richmond, etc. They’re all the same guy. Just a bunch of small schools with undersized white guys who can kind of shoot sometimes.
14. Outside of Kansas, the Big 12 is a fucking nightmare. Bet at your own risk.
The Jayhawks are pretty consistent. Everyone else ranges from good to great and they all beat up on each other.
15. Don’t bet the Big Sky because it’s the fucking Big Sky (unless you’re desperate)
I challenge you to tell me, with any confidence, who will win a game between Idaho State and Northern Arizona.
16. Don’t trust anyone but Valpo in the Horizon League. Valpo has since bounced the Horizon, so just don’t trust anyone in the Horizon League in general I guess.
Had some real “come to God” moments where I was sitting in my room alone watching Cleveland State and just wondering what my life is even about. Best to avoid this.
17. Hammer the top-tier Ivy League teams against the lower-tier
Dartmouth and Columbia are punching bags for the other nerds.
18. Everyone in the MAAC is useless, Monmouth/Iona included
19. Don’t bet any conference whose name is also a compass direction (Northeast, Mid-East, etc)
Without fail, these teams are always terrible. A team with 3 wins could beat the best team in the conference no sweat.
20. The most reliable teams in conference play are those atop the Missouri Valley Conference
21. Don’t bet any game on an aircraft carrier, in a hotel ballroom, or on an obscure island
There’s always some shit called like the Atlantis Invitational where they drag Northern Iowa to the Bahamas and force them to jack up threes in a Marriott ballroom while starting every commercial break with a slow-mo shot of the shark slide. Aircraft carrier games meanwhile are sick to watch, miserable to bet.
22. Don’t bet the heavily sponsored tournaments at the beginning of the year that don’t actually mean anything
Same idea as #21. Always just random teams from across the country battling it out in some strange neutral site. No real way to pick winners.
23. Belmont is always a safe bet
24. If you see a conference in which you question if one of the schools really exists, do not bet said conference
Look me in the eyes and tell me Canisius is a real place.
25. Don’t bet against any school named after an insignificant historical figure
No clue why, but these schools always show up come tournament time. Stephen F. Austin, George Mason, Robert Morris, St. Peter’s… shall I keep going?
26. Don’t bet BYU. Those guys are too tightly wound
They could use a nice soak if you catch my drift ;)
27. Gonzaga in-conference is free money
Also San Francisco against anyone but the Zags or St. Mary’s is a virtual lock. Made a lot of money on the Dons over the years.
28. Only bet the Mountain West if you’re up late and bored
Shit works better than Nyquil.
29. No, your 8-team parlay of massive favorites is not a good idea
30. Don’t bet multiple parlays in the same day — they cancel each other out
31. Don’t bet Kentucky on the road. Freshmen get rattled
32. Don’t bet games outside the contiguous United States
Fly 8 hours to Hawaii then tell me if you feel like running around and jumping for another 2 hours.
33. Don’t bet on a team that has multiple guys with aggressively long hair or overgrown beards — no discipline
This is basically just West Virginia.
34. The Santa Clause: Don’t bet holiday games
Guys are distracted. How you going to focus on basketball when there’s the outline of a mountain bike wrapped up under the tree with your name on it?
35. Don’t bet on schools that were featured in uplifting Disney movies
UTEP aka Texas Western from Glory Road. Don’t think I have any actual basis for this — I just thought it sounded funny at the time.
That’s it. Follow these simple 35 rules and you’ll be riding the gravy train in no time. Now do these rules make betting significantly less fun? Yes. And do they limit the number of teams you can actually bet on substantially? Also yes. But these work (sometimes). And always remember, some rules are made to be broken :)
