The Big Dance is finally upon us. What lies before us is 4 straight days of pure chaos.

There will be buzzer beaters, upsets, and the occasional douchebag-looking kid from some random school in bumfuck Arizona who just refuses to miss a three (speaking of which, bet on Utah State).

It’s the best weekend in all of sports.

Where Cinderella is still at the ball, wearing her weird mice-woven dress just giving everyone the plague, and stomping around in her horrifically impractical glass slippers (those things are tetanus waiting to happen).

Then eventually the clock strikes midnight and Kansas just ends up winning the whole thing again. But that isn’t for a few weeks. This weekend, we’re only focused on Cinderellas. And with that, I give you the Fatty Liver’s official bracket buster bonanza, aka, the upsets to keep an eye out for. Every year, there’s roughly 5-6 teams seeded 11 or higher that pull off a first round upset. Here are my most likely bracket busters.

(These are all based on a combination of fallacious reasoning and excessive consumption of dogshit basketball. Yeah, I’ve watched every one of these teams play).

1. #12 VCU over #5 Saint Mary’s

This one doesn’t even feel like an upset given VCU’s tournament history and St. Mary’s propensity to field a team of mostly Aussies.

We’re looking at a gut instinct pick. Unless they shoot lights out, St. Mary’s doesn’t have the scoring to compete with VCU. And frankly, I haven’t lost a single bet on the Rams all year, which will always put you in my good graces.

Also, St. Mary’s is small, while VCU has some dude so tall he doesn’t even fit in the frame.

2. #13 Kent State over #4 Indiana

Full disclosure this one is mostly a spite pick because Indiana cost me a four-figure gambling week the other day. Having said that, Kent State can actually ball.

Whatever team came out of the MAC was going to be a threat and it happened to be the Flashes, one of the league’s most consistent sides. These guys play fast and fearless and will take it to an Indiana team that’s stumbled down the stretch.

Also Kent State has a guy named Sincere Carry so that’s worth at least one win.

3. #13 Louisiana-Lafayette over #4 Tennessee

This is one of those upsets that doesn’t really make sense so it’s going to happen. ULL is good, not great. Play a real fast, physical style of basketball. They got a weird swamp court which is sus. And they’re called the Ragin’ Cajuns which is sick. But overall they’re just a decent team.

Tennessee is much better on paper, but they just don’t seem like they want to be there at times. ULL plays with intensity and this game is so fucking random and so un-talked about that I feel like ULL will pull it out.

4. #14 Montana State over #3 Kansas State

Love the Bobcats to take down their more unruly cousin, the Wildcats. This is a team that does all the little things right. They keep turnovers to a minimum and shoot 75% from the free throw line as a team. Kansas State meanwhile boasts an impressive 98% acceptance rate as a university.

The Wildcats were one of my early season favorites, but they’ve fallen off a cliff of late and tend to collapse on the big stage. Montana State is playing great ball and weirdly has some huge guys. Give me the RobertCats in a tight one.

5. #14 Grand Canyon over #3 Gonzaga

You know what? Fuck it. Gonzaga is such a juggernaut offensively, were dominant down the stretch, and everything is now lining up for them to make a deep run.

But Grand Canyon…they might be the best 3-point shooting team of all time. I watched three of their conference tournament games and I thought I was watching the Warriors. Deadass. I’ve never seen a team drain as consistently as them. It got to the point that I was surprised when they missed.

This pick makes absolutely zero sense and is almost definitely going to lose, but why not? Madness never makes sense.

(If all these picks are wrong this blog was satire)